2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Which Teams Have The Best Shot At No. 1?
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is finally here, and a few franchises are sitting in prime position to land the coveted No. 1 pick. Heading into Sunday night, the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets each hold the best odds at 14% — but as lottery history has shown, nothing is guaranteed.
Since the lottery system launched back in 1985 with the Knicks winning the rights to draft Patrick Ewing, the event has produced plenty of drama, heartbreak, and unexpected jumps. The current setup determines the top four picks through a weighted draw, while picks 5-14 are ordered by regular-season records.
Teams With The Best Shot At No. 1
- Washington Wizards — 14% chance
- Indiana Pacers — 14% chance
- Brooklyn Nets — 14% chance
- Utah Jazz — 11.5% chance
- Sacramento Kings — 11.5% chance
Washington has already experienced both sides of lottery luck. The franchise landed No. 1 picks that turned into Kwame Brown and John Wall, but last year’s drop from No. 2 to No. 6 was a painful setback.
Indiana, meanwhile, is still chasing its first-ever lottery win. The Pacers came painfully close in the original 1985 drawing but missed out on Ewing. This year, there’s extra pressure because their pick could head to the Clippers if it lands outside the top four.
Brooklyn has already turned lottery luck into franchise-changing moments, grabbing top picks like Derrick Coleman and Kenyon Martin. The Nets famously won the 2000 lottery despite holding only a 4% chance.
Some Wild Lottery History
A few franchises have seen unbelievable swings over the years:
- The Memphis Grizzlies nearly had a shot at drafting LeBron James in 2003, but a protected-pick situation changed everything.
- The Dallas Mavericks finally broke years of lottery misery after jumping up to draft Cooper Flagg in 2025 with just a 1.8% chance.
- The Atlanta Hawks shocked everyone in 2024 by winning the lottery despite only a 3% chance and selecting Zaccharie Risacher.
Teams Still Waiting For Lottery Luck
Several franchises have never won the draft lottery at all, including:
- Indiana Pacers
- Utah Jazz
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Miami Heat
Ironically, Oklahoma City has still managed to land stars like Kevin Durant and Gary Payton thanks to major jumps in previous lotteries.
A Few Lottery Facts That Stand Out
- The Los Angeles Clippers own three No. 1 picks in lottery history.
- The Chicago Bulls used past lottery wins to draft Derrick Rose and Elton Brand.
- The Charlotte Hornets have experienced some of the lottery’s biggest jumps and toughest drops over the years.
- The Golden State Warriors were actually one of the lottery’s earliest victims, falling to No. 7 in the very first drawing despite having one of the league’s worst records.
As always, the NBA Draft Lottery promises chaos, surprises, and potentially franchise-changing outcomes. A few lucky ping-pong balls could completely reshape the future of the league.
